Gameweek 10 in Five Graphics

The stats that matter this week

November 07, 2024

Welcome to Gameweek Graphics! This week:

  • Erling Haaland’s underlying data during his downturn

  • Why Alejandro Garnacho could be key for the next few weeks

  • Why having no Tottenham attackers might hurt this week

  • The in-form budget forwards

  • The midfielder entering an amazing fixture run

Fewer goals for Erling Haaland, but not through lack of chances

What you need to know:

  • Haaland has one goal in his last 5 and his ownership is starting to dip.

  • His xG (expected goals) numbers remain very high and more or less on course with last season.

  • Potentially difficult fixtures are on the horizon, but (as always) its a big risk to sell him.

In depth:

After 4 blanks in 5, selling Erling Haaland is a real temptation.

Doing so will allow you to have a midfield with the three premium options of Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer, and Mohamed Salah during a period where all three have decent fixtures.

The big risk of course is that while Haaland hasn’t found the net a whole lot recently, he’s had plenty of very good chances to do so. Even more impressively, he’s done this during a period where injuries have been a problem for City’s attack.

The graphic shows rolling mean expected goals - the average expected goals put up by Haaland across the past five matches for last season and this season.

His average for the last 5 matches is around 0.75 xG, which puts him a little below his highest points on the graphic (after coming back from injury in GW22 last season and the start of this season), but still very high relative to other options.

This decision might come down to how you rate his next few fixtures. He plays some tricky defences (Liverpool, Nottingham Forest) in his next 4 matches, but he’s shown in the past he get’s chances against all opponents.

Manchester United assets gaining popularity

What you need to know:

  • Manchester United have an interim manager and three juicy fixtures coming up.

  • Bruno Fernandes will be a popular choice for this run, but Alejandro Garnacho has been a standout attacker among midfielders in xG this season.

In depth:

Manchester United face Leicester (H), Ipswich (A), Everton (H) in their next three. Leicester and Ipswich are two of the three worst defences by xGC (expected goals conceded) so far this season.

With Erik ten Hag gone, and Ruben Amorim arriving soon, an uptick in United’s fortunes seems likely.

Alejandro Garnacho has started the last 6 matches (and played 90 minutes in all of them) in the league. He only has one goal to show for this run, but his non-penalty xG per 90 so far this season ranks him fourth among all midfielders.

He’s also in the 98th percentile among midfielders for shots per 90, and 90th for touches in the box, indicating he’s playing very high up the pitch, getting plenty of involvement close to goal and getting on the end of attacking moves.

Bruno Fernandes is also fairly high in the midfielder rankings for xG and shots per 90. But he lags behind Garnacho in xG, shots, and touches and carries into the box, and will eat a bigger hole in your budget (£8.2m vs £6.3m).

No Tottenham attackers? This could be painful…

What you need to know:

  • The best attack and worst defence by xG so far this season are facing each other this weekend (Tottenham vs Ipswich)

  • Bournemouth and Wolves attackers are in with a decent chance of goals against leaky defences

  • Nottingham Forest holding strong as second-best defence by xGC this season (behind Liverpool).

In depth:

This chart shows, for each team, their xG and their opponent’s xGC so far this season, and sorts them so the biggest mismatches are on the left.

On the left, you have strong attacks facing weak defences, and on the right strong defences facing weak attacks.

Tottenham remained at the top of the xG per match standings after their 4-1 win over Aston Villa in Gameweek 10, and face the poorest defence — Ipswich. We’re unlikely to get early team news on this one but Spurs will be looking to build momentum after a stop-start early campaign.

Ipswich’s attack is bottom for xG per match but I’m still not getting my hopes up for a Tottenham clean sheet — it would only be the 6th in the last year.

Budget forwards putting up good numbers, Newcastle coming into form

What you need to know:

  • Raul Jimenez and Danny Welbeck are in the top 10 players by non-penalty xGI (expected goal involvements) across the last 5 gameweeks.

  • Alexander Isak has had some good chances since coming back from a broken toe

In depth:

Budget forwards are in vogue at the moment with a bunch of cheap options doing well. Danny Welbeck has 3 goals in his last 4, Raul Jimenez has 4 in 7, and Chris Wood has 8 goals for the season.

Of those three, Welbeck and Jimenez have put up strong xG numbers in the last few matches. Chris Wood doesn’t quite make this chart but he isn’t far behind on 2.16 non-penalty xGI for Gameweek 6 to 10.

Newcastle seem to be returning to attacking form with Alexander Isak dangerous in their last three matches.

Antoine Semenyo is a great option as the fixtures turn in Bournemouth’s favour

What you need to know:

  • Over the next 6 matches, Bournemouth are the team with the easiest attacking schedule by opponent xGC.

  • Antoine Semenyo is the standout asset, at the 90th percentile for non-penalty xG and the 100th percentile for shots among midfielders - no one is shooting more regularly than him!

  • Wolves, Brighton and Leicester all have good attacking fixtures to come from now until Gameweek 16. Don’t pick Kudus — he’s suspended until GW14

In depth:

The graphic above shows players with more than 1.5 non-penalty xG across the last 5 matches, and plots them against the defensive strength of the next 6 teams they face.

There are lots of players with higher xG than Antoine Semenyo, but the average xGC per match of the next 6 teams he faces is quite a bit higher than any other player.

Antoine Semenyo’s next 6 matches

Not only has Antoine Semenyo taken more shots per ninety minutes (4.33) than any other midfielder, but he beats all the forwards too except Erling Haaland (4.7).

Bournemouth are coming off the back of two great results having beaten both Arsenal and Manchester City in the last few weeks with Semenyo important in both matches.

I hope you enjoyed Gameweek Graphics — feel free to reply with any feedback!

Until next time,

—Jonathan