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- 📊 Gameweek 13 in 5 graphics
📊 Gameweek 13 in 5 graphics
Here comes the fixture crunch
Welcome to Gameweek Graphics!
The fixture crunch is here! Here’s what you’ll find this week to navigate Gameweek 13:
Why it might be time to jump off of Bryan Mbeumo
How Isak outshines Jackson
Haaland’s underlying data is still great
Navigating the fixture crunch
xG mismatch for Gameweek 13
What’s happened to Bryan Mbeumo?
What you need to know:
Bryan Mbeumo’s open play shooting has declined — he’s had six shots in the last five matches.
It doesn’t look like his shooting is influenced by whether Yoann Wissa is also on the pitch.
In depth:
Bryan Mbeumo’s fast start to the season has ground to a halt.
After six goals in his first seven Gameweeks (including two penalties), Bryan Mbeumo was so popular that his price had risen from £7.0m to £7.8m by Gameweek 10.
But his open play shots in the last few Gameweeks especially have been few and far between. His one open play goal in the last five was against Ipswich — and that was a cross. He’s had six shots in total in the last five Gameweeks.
So what’s happened?
Is it a Wissa effect? Not really.
Mbeumo metrics | With Wissa | No Wissa |
---|---|---|
Mins | 636 | 439 |
Shots (exc. penalties) | 11 | 9 |
Mins per shot | 58 | 49 |
npxG total | 1.25 | 1.10 |
xG/shot | 0.11 | 0.12 |
Mbeumo’s shooting when Wissa wasn’t on the pitch isn’t all that different to when he is. He shoots slightly less, for broadly the same xG per shot.
Has there been some overperformance? Definitely — Mbeumo has six goals from 2.3 npxG this season. Overperformance isn’t especially worrying, but his recent lack of shooting is.
Many will be looking to sell after Leicester in Gameweek 13 as the fixtures turn. But unless you think he can buck the trend of the last few matches he could be a sell now.
Isak or Jackson?
Isak GW1-12 | Isak GW7-12 |
Jackson GW1-12 | Jackson GW7-12 |
What you need to know:
Alexander Isak and Nicolas Jackson are popular choices at the moment.
Jackson beats Isak in full-season xG rankings, but Isak is performing much better more recently.
Jackson is also one yellow card from suspension.
In depth:
With many selling Erling Haaland (more on him next), mid-price forwards have been all the rage.
Alexander Isak has been a really popular choice but I’ve seen plenty advocating for Nicolas Jackson too.
Isak had a quiet start to the season, and ranks sixth in full-season non-penalty xG per 90 among forwards. He and Newcastle struggled in the early weeks of the season but despite Monday’s defeat to West Ham, they seem to be improving. Between Gameweeks 7 and 12, Isak has shot up the xG per 90 rankings to second.
Meanwhile, Jackson had a storming start and was ranked ahead of Haaland for xG per 90 at one point. The last few matches have been quieter for him though — between Gameweeks 7 and 12, he’s down in 13th for xG per 90 among forwards.
Fixtures are below, and there’s not too much in it between them.
Jackson will likely improve his xG over the next few matches, but its been a really good showing recently from Isak. I’m also not sure about doubling up on Chelsea if you already have Palmer, while Isak is the only viable route into Newcastle’s attack right now.
Jackson’s next 5 | Isak’s next 5 |
Erling Haaland — sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit
What you need to know:
Erling Haaland disappointed owners again in Gameweek 12 but his underlying xG is just as strong as it has been all season.
In depth:
Look, there’s not much more I can say about Erling Haaland’s recent run that hasn’t already been said. In short, the £15.1m man has two goals in his last seven.
There’s also a lot of noise about the wider malaise affecting Manchester City, which culminated in a stunning 0-4 defeat to Tottenham on Saturday.
Amidst all this though, our man Erling is still generating plenty of chances.
In fact, his rolling non-penalty xG (the mean xG he’s generated over the last five matches) is now higher than it has been all season.
And yes, that includes the five-match period earlier this season when he scored nine goals.
Many will have seen enough, and will be transferring him out ahead of one of the most difficult fixtures of the season in Gameweek 13. Personally, I’m hanging on a little bit longer.
The fixture crunch is coming — which popular picks are risky?
What you need to know:
With the international breaks out of the way, the festive fixture crunch in on the horizon — there are seven Gameweeks in the next month.
Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rogers, Emile Smith Rowe, Nicolas Jackson, and Chris Wood are possible risks for early substitutions
In depth:
Gameweek 13 starts on 29th November, but by 29th December we’ll be starting Gameweek 19 — seven Gameweeks in just a month.
8 Premier League sides are also in action in the Carabao Cup on 18th/19th December, and there’s a round of European fixtures between 10th — 12th December.
This means rotation will be something to factor in over the next month, but who is likely to have their minutes managed?
The graphic shows minutes played by Gameweek for selected high-ownership players, sorted by players with the most minutes so far.
Morgan Rogers jumps out for me — he played the full 90 minutes in six of the Aston Villa’s first seven matches, but has been substituted in four of his last five. Villa are out of the Carabao Cup but still have a Champions League fixture away at RB Leipzig.
Ollie Watkins was a 90-minute man for most of last season, but he’s been substituted a lot more this season.
Budget forwards Chris Wood and Danny Welbeck are both in their thirties and don’t always complete 90 minutes. Emile Smith Rowe is a particular substitution risk.
Cole Palmer, Mohamed Salah, and Erling Haaland are frequent 90 minute men — its hard to predict if and when they’ll be rested. It was around this time last season that Haaland picked up an injury and missed five Gameweeks. Salah was an early sub in Gameweek 15 last season but played 90 minutes in every other match.
With the league phase of the European competitions extending into January, there’s also none of the possible dead-rubber matches that sometimes came at the end of the old group stage in December which provided good opportunities to rotate.
The fixture crunch is bound to screw us all over at some point — a strong squad is needed now more than ever.
Good attacking/defending matchups this week
What you need to know:
Arsenal haven’t been purring in attack yet but have Odegaard back and face a weak West Ham side.
Manchester City are 7th for xGC and 2nd for xG, facing the league’s best defence this week.
In depth:
Brighton and Brentford are facing two of the promoted sides this week and come out top in the xG mismatch standings for this Gameweek — a measure of the gap between a teams xG and their opponent’s xGC this season.
Newly-revitalised Arsenal are going to The Olympic Stadium where they demolished West Ham 6-0 last season. I’m considering captaining Bukayo Saka who ran riot here in that match.
Chelsea and Aston Villa both look competent defensively so we might see a low-scoring match there.
Manchester City are having a nightmare spell defensively and find themselves 7th for xGC so far this season. Liverpool have been solid in attack this season and their league-best defence is facing an attack that can still create plenty of chances.
I hope you enjoyed Gameweek Graphics — feel free to reply with any feedback!
Until next time,
—Jonathan